Tuesday, October 25, 2016 – 9:00 a.m.
Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump has shifted his entire campaign theme to the “rigged establishment”.
One of his claims is that polling number are being deliberately skewed against him in order to create an aura of inevitability to Democrat Hillary Clinton.
Is Trump right?
It sure appears that way.
Published analysis of several national polls indicates that, in particular, network and newspaper samples, are heavily skewed democrat.
When I say skewed. I mean skewed.
It’s true there more people registered democrat than republican. But not 9 to 12 percentage points.
As of October 2014, Gallup polling found that 43% of Americans identified as Democrats and 39% as Republicans, when party “leaners” were included; those figures changed to 41% Democratic and 42% Republican after the November 2014 elections.
The democrat advantage is somewhere in the 3% to 5% range. Not the purported 9% to 12% figure.
There’s even been one poll skewed 14% democrat.
The dubious premise used in these half-baked polls is voter self-identification.
In the highly-touted Real Clear Politics Average of Polls, samples from, you got it, ABC News, NBC News, CBS News, Bloomberg and Reuters, among others, are bolstering Democrat Hillary Clinton’s purported insurmountable lead. Currently at 5.4% in a four-way race.
Remove the inflated data and Clinton’s lead is well within the margin of error. Meaning it’s too close to call.
Why disseminate bogus poll numbers?
It’s a psychological game to try and convince GOP voters to give up and stay home.
A Clinton campaign email put out by Wikileaks confirms the tactic is being used.
In past elections the tactic may have had some impact. But this year feels different.
In the end it’s all about the individual battleground states and first-time voters.