Capitol Weekly

By Jonathan Brown
Posted 04.21.2016

Perhaps all attention on primary night in California should be on the 33rd Congressional District – home to the Trump National Golf Club. After all, in New York, the only Congressional District that Donald Trump didn’t win was the one in which he lives.

Trump is likely to do well in California, too.

Our California poll of 1,165 high propensity Republican voters has Trump currently atop the leader board by a comfortable margin. In the survey, conducted April 11 through April 14, Trump receives 41% of the vote, to Ted Cruz’s 23% and John Kasich’s 21%. A separate sample of 466 Republicans registered since the turn of the New Year has Trump ahead 53%-21%-15%, indicating that Trump’s overall lead among the expected turnout is a few points greater.

And while there isn’t a Trump residence here in the Golden State, the closest we have is in the 33rd CD on Palos Verdes Peninsula — home to a marquee Trump investment and a sublime irony if that were the only district Trump didn’t carry in California.

A comparison of California’s primary to the election we just saw in New York is justified for two reasons: The systems in each state are similar and, as our recent poll suggests, another Trump sweep could be in the offing here.

Of course, winning the state overall isn’t the hole-in-one it is in the winner-take-all states. California awards its delegates on a winner-take-all basis in each Congressional District – 53 concurrent holes of match play.

Even with our robust sample of more than 1,000 likely voters, it’s still not enough to look at individual districts. And some districts have so few voters we may never see significant polling. But, to enhance our findings we combined districts based on contiguity and common demographics as a way to interpret what might happen on a district-by-district basis.

Click here to see the complete poll and its methodology. Click here to see the cross tabs.

Statewide, Trump leads.

To read expanded article, click here.