Saturday, April 16, 2016 – 04:30 p.m.
Following a bumpy two-week period in his campaign, GOP Front-runner Donald Trump is flying high again.
After being, once again, declared dead on arrival. Trump has recaptured his command of the race for the republican nomination. It’s a testimonial to his skill and brain power.
It’s been a while since I updated on the business mogul’s ascent to the presidency, so let’s get caught up.
This week a Florida prosecutor declined to file a battery charge against Campaign Manager Corey Lewandowski for touching former Politico Reporter Michelle Fields. The news turned around a troubling narrative for Trump, who was rightfully sticking by his guy. Prosecutors actually determined Fields initiated physical contact with Trump, who was under Secret Service protection.
Any of us would have been thrown to the ground if we would have pulled that stunt.
Trump is now taking his home state of New York by storm and is likely to take most or all of the state’s 95 delegates in this Tuesday’s primary. Trump was masterful and funny when addressing the New York GOP Gala attendees on Thursday evening. Prior to the gala, in a surprise to most insiders, pundits and the like, The New York Post handed its endorsement to trump.
What has also been noticeable is a change in Trump’s tone and tenor. He’s calming his style just a bit and it’s being noticed.
An op-ed by Trump published in The Wall Street Journal, even though he’s calling out the GOP establishment and the delegate allocation process, was well received.
Now to the polling.
Trump, as previously mentioned, is leaving Texas U.S. Senator Ted Cruz and Ohio governor John Kasich in the dirt in the state of New York, with an average polling lead of 31.3 percent. But in the remaining northeastern states he is also poised to win most of the delegates.
Trump is expanding his leads in Pennsylvania (+15.8), Connecticut (+24.0) , New Jersey (+27.0), Maryland (+20.0), Rhode Island (+18.0) and West Virginia (+20.0).
Trump even leads in California (+7.5) even though he hasn’t yet started campaigning in the state.
Delaware has no available polling data.
On the national front the sky is also looking rosier for Trump.
Recent nationwide polling has Cruz fading, while Kasich and Trump picking up some of that support.
The Reuters/Ipsos Five-Day Tracking Poll has Trump rebounding. In that poll Trump is at 45.4 percent, while Cruz is at 25.4 percent and Kasich at 19.4 percent.
The Real Clear Politics average of recent polls has Trump up 9.8 percent over Cruz. But the trending in polling is swinging Trump’s way.
The last five polls from oldest to most recent has Trump +5%, +7%, +6%, +13% and +18%.
Now to the convention.
Trump is likely to come close or surpass the 1,237 delegate threshold needed to secure the nomination on the first GOP convention ballot. Even if he just comes close, there are more than 150 unbound delegates available for him to pick off.
It’s doubtful the Republican Party will try and steal the nomination from Trump and risk a complete meltdown.
I originally believed Trump might decide on Rubio and his 171 delegates as a running mate. But it now looks more palatable for Kasich and his current 144 delegate balance.
That’s if Trump needs the delegates.