Monday, April 4, 2016 – 09:00 a.m.
Tuesday is the Wisconsin Primary.
The supposed make or break contest for Front-runner Donald Trump and Texas U.S. Senator Ted Cruz.
Yes I know. Wisconsin make or break? Really???
Actually. It’s not.
Should Trump end up in second place, he may secure up to a third, of the state’s 42 delegates. The reason being he will win a few of the suburban congressional districts.
New weekend polling data has the race tightening, with Cruz and Trump within or near the margin of error. The trend has moved back in Trump’s direction.
Evidently Trump’s heavy focus in the state over the weekend is paying off.
The unknown here that can’t be truly measured in the polling is the fact that Wisconsin is an open primary. This means that democrat and independent voters can re-register and vote republican, at the polls, on Election day.
Pollsters can’t really measure this dynamic. Since they don’t know who will actually switch over and vote for Trump, who has benefited heavily in open contests. What’s even more interesting is voter responses to questioning related to what they will do if Trump wins the most delegates by far and the nomination is stolen from him.
Trump is already out calling the delegate process as being “crooked as hell”. Now his supporters are weighing in.
Their response: They won’t vote at all, or they’ll write-in Trump.
Translated: The non-Trump GOP nominee will lose to the democrat nominee in a General Election matchup.
Trump has serious polling leads in New York, Pennsylvania and California. He is also expected to win New Jersey, Connecticut and Delaware.
The so-called GOP establishment might want to rethink the situation.