Chabot+Aguilar

Republican Paul Chabot left. Democrat Pete Aguilar right.

Sunday, June 8, 2014 – 11:30 a.m.

Pete Aguilar (D-Redlands) will now face Paul Chabot (R-Rancho Cucamonga) in the runoff election to decide who will represent the 31st Congressional District.

What a choice!

That’s unless Lesli Gooch (R-Rancho Cucamonga) pulls off a miracle.

Gooch trails Aguilar by 181 votes, with a smattering of ballots remaining, which require manual counting and verification.

But the current 0.34% separation between Aguilar and Gooch will stand in the end. There’s just too few remaining ballots left to count.

That leaves voters with the underwhelming choice of Aguilar or Chabot.

Aguilar is no ball of fire. He has been bouncing from job-to-job since he was dismissed from his position at Arrowhead Credit Union, after the institution was seized by federal regulators.

He’s also not a great campaigner. Aguilar’s current placing, and razor-thin victory, reinforces that assessment. We actually pegged him to lose again in the primary.

As a matter of fact, Aguilar likely would have lost, if not for late spending against Gooch by the Democratic National Congressional Committee (DNCC).

Now Chabot, on the other hand, has over the years, painted himself as an extreme right-wing republican anti-drug activist.

But the business activities of Chabot, and wife Brenda, will now face microscope-level scrutiny from the Democratic National Congressional Committee (DNCC). It won’t be pretty either. Chabot has talked a good game over the past several years, in an attempt to build political credentials.

He has had some success in doing so. But it won’t be enough.

Recently, Chabot was successfully sued by a medical marijuana activist for “falsely accusing the man of battery”.

He’s also going to face scruitny over how his non-profits, ran by his wife, have spent fedeal grant money. See the following story: InlandPolitics: CD-31: Candidate’s business ventures raise questions

Then Chabot didn’t help his situation by attacking republican groups, who declined to endorse him in the primary. Groups who will likely sit on their hands in the runoff.

CD-31, with an 6.6% democrat registration advantage (40.4%) over republican (33.8%), is now “Leans Democrat”.

With so many other closer contests, nationwide, it’s unlikely the National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC), will invest any serious dough to aid Chabot.

Why should they? Chabot has made more republicans dislike him than anything else.

This seat will finally go to the democrats.