Sunday, October 24, 2010 – 11:30 a.m.
Last Updated: October 24, 2010 – 03:30 p.m.
This weekend we were all treated to another LA Times/USC poll.
However, instead of being disgusted, I rolled on the floor laughing.
This poll either has to be a senior college project or the team compiling the data, did so after Friday night happy hour.
The Times has proclaimed the democratic voter base now re-energized and both republican candidate Meg Whitman and Carly Fiorina are toast. The new poll says democratic voter turnout is now going to exceed 2008.
Yes, democrats Jerry Brown and Barbara Boxer are shoe-ins.
However the poll is more like a psychological conditioning attempt than anything else.
In other words, if we tell everyone the democrats are going to win, the “vote for the winner” mentality will prevail.
The Times/USC poll has the highest democrat candidate lead margins of any published poll, and flies in the face of several legitimate polling organizations. Organizations that take pride in their accuracy on predicting the final result.
After all, most pollsters are supposed to be paid for accuracy.
The Times/USC poll, like the PPIC poll released a few days ago, unrealistically covers an 8-day span.
Mildy adjusting turnout assumptions can statically change a poll outcome by a wide margin. The Times/USC bunch must have adjusted their turnout model by way of a martini glass.
Fiorina has a reasonable shot to take out Boxer, while Whitman has to do some praying for high republican turnout and hope that her modern-day experiment in micro-targeting executes masterfully.