Saturday, June 4, 2016 – 03:30 p.m.
Well the much talked about California Primary Election is before us.
Then things will get dull until the presidential nominating conventions. One can expect more policy speeches and sniping between Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton.
It’s easy to fathom Clinton winning California by a few percentage points or more.
If she doesn’t. Then the outcome will be viewed by the punditry as a self-inflicted wound to Clinton.
After all Clinton did win California by double-digits eight years ago.
The U.S. Senate seat being vacated by Barbara Boxer will proceed, as expected, to a November runoff between Attorney General Kamala Harris (D) and Congresswoman Loretta Sanchez (D).
Then the battle begins in earnest. Both women have money to spend. Harris would have had more if she hadn’t blown millions on nonsense.
Nevertheless. Sanchez is vacating her seat in Congress, so she will be all in this fall. You know the usual throat-cutting and fight to the finish
Expect this campaign to go negative fast. Republican voters will, in the end, decide who gets this seat. Harris’ “I’m fighting for you” facade isn’t going to last.
In the 31st Congressional District, what was supposed to be a Paul Chabot (R-Rancho Cucamonga) juggernaut to challenge incumbent Pete Aguilar (D-Redlands), was anything but.
Republican Sean Flynn with decent funding has been building his name identification. Expect either Chabot or Flynn to face Aguilar in November.
Congressman Paul Cook (R-Yucca Vallry) has been acting like a man in trouble.
Cook, and Political Action Committee’s (PAC’s) supporting him, have been blitzing radio, television and voter mailboxes. An odd posture for an incumbent that should be cruising to victory in a safe seat. But challenger Tim Donnelly, a former republican state assemblyman, is apparently causing Cook some serious grief.
One source has polling showing Cook trailing Donnelly by five points.
These two men should move to a November runoff, where the dynamic should favor Cook, unless something strange occurs.
Why Cook, who sounds like father time these days, wants to stay in politics is anyone’s guess.
In other state house seats, expect Assembly Members, Marc Steinorth, Chad Mayes (Trump hater and all), Cheryl Brown, Jay Obernolte, Jose Medina, Eric Linder, Freddie Rodriguez, Melissa Melendez and Steve Fox to prevail.
State Senator Mike Morrell should also be returned to Sacramento by voters.
The only San Bernardino County Board of Supervisors seat in contention is the First District, where first-term incumbent Robert Lovingood is fighting off four challengers.
This contest will go to a November runoff election consisting of Lovingood and what’s likely to be either Paul Russ or Angela Valles.
The only Superior Court seat in contention has four lawyers vying for an open seat.
These contests are hard to predict. But Denise Trager Dvorak likely has an edge to place first.
Only Traeger Dvorak and Local Attorney Soheila Azizi have been in voter mailboxes. The other two contenders are Attorneys Dieter Dammeier and Susan Slater.
Dammeier using a ballot designation of “Law Enforcement Attorney” is somewhat creative. We’ll see how the title competes with Dvorak’s Supervising District Attorney designation.
Four candidates in this race will likely make for a runoff election in November as well.