Electoral Map - 2012

Joseph Turner
Saturday, March 19, 2016 – 10:15 a.m.

This will be a fairly brief post about the 2012 electoral map as I am preparing to write a series of posts in the future analyzing some swing states.

Most people are seemingly unaware of how close Mitt Romney came to winning the presidential election. Much has been written and it has often been described as a very convincing or solid victory for Obama.

Just this week I was watching Chris Matthews on MSNBC and he called it a thumping. But, was it?

In terms of electoral votes, maybe that is accurate. You can view the electoral map here.

Obama had 332 vs Romney’s 206. The popular vote was pretty damn close. Obama managed to only get 51 percent of the vote to Romney’s 47 percent (insert laugh track – see video), or five million more votes.

Three States…

Did you know that Romney was a mere three states away from winning that election?

If he would have won Florida, Pennsylvania and Michigan he would have ended up with 271 electoral votes. Alternatively, he could have won Florida, Pennsylvania and Ohio and ended up with 273 electoral votes.

When you look at those four states you find that Romney did not get blown out. You can get the state by state raw vote count here.

  • Obama beat Romney in Florida by roughly 80,000 votes. Nearly 8.5 million votes were cast!
  • Obama beat Romney in Pennsylvania by 300,000 votes. More than 5.7 million votes were cast.
  • Obama beat Romney in Michigan by 450,000 votes. Roughly 4.7 million votes were cast.
  • Obama beat Romney in Ohio by 160,000 votes. About 5.6 million votes were cast.

When you add up Florida, Pennsylvania and Ohio, Romney only had to flip 350,000 voters out of a total of 19.8 million voters. Or some combination of drawing in more people who did not vote in combination with flipping some of those votes.

Now imagine if Romney actually ran a solid campaign.