Polling

Saturday, October 10, 2015 – 12:00 p.m.

The latest political obituary of Billionaire GOP Presidential Donald Trump, written by the establishment-leaning media and pundit corps, would appear to be, once again, premature.

That conclusion is based upon the latest round of early polling.

But this isn’t August any longer, and all the references to a summertime voter affair with Trump are long gone.

State Polling

Trump now leads in all but one state (a tie), in early voter polling of registered voters, and is leading nationally by wider margins than during his late September sag in the polls.

On Monday, a Mercyhurst Poll has Trump and Ben Carson tied at 18% in Pennsylvania. On Wednesday, Quinnipiac University had Trump at 23% in the state, followed by Carson at 17%.

In Ohio, Quinnipiac has Trump at 23%, followed by Carson at 18%. The state’s governor, John Kasich, has fallen to 13%. At one point Kasich actually had a lead in his state.

Florida is even more interesting. There Quinnipiac has Trump at 28%. Carson comes in second again at 16%, followed by Marco Rubio, the state’s own senator, at 14% and Jeb Bush, the state’s former governor, at 12%.

Even left-leaning California likes Trump. he leads at 17%, followed by Carson at 15% and Former HP Exec Carly Fiorina at 13%.

And last, but not least, Gravis Marketing published their poll on Friday showing Trump at 32% in New Hampshire. He’s followed by Carson at 13% and Kasich at 10%.

In all recent polling, Trump has some form of lead in the following state’s: Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Texas, Florida, North Carolina, South Carolina, Ohio and California.

National Polling

The only national poll released this week was by Democrat-leaning Public Policy Polling (PPP).

PPP has Trump up at 27%, followed by Carson (17%), Rubio (13%) and Bush (10%).

The Real Clear Politics average of national polling (9 polls) has Trump at 23.2%, followed by Carson (17.2%), Fiorina (10.4%), Rubio (9.9%), Bush (8.4%) and Texas Senator Ted Cruz (6.2%).

One must keep in mind that the above numbers include the Investor’s Business Daily/TIPP poll which had Carson in first place at 24% and Trump at 17%.

The IBD/TIPP poll is clearly an outlier and can’t be taken seriously.

Excluding the IBD/TIPP poll, Trump’s reading is at 24% and Carson at 16.4%.

An few observations here:

  • The recent results must have alarm bells sounding in the Bush campaign. The trend hasn’t improved in any significant way for the son of a former president, with 100% name identification.
  • All the hype about Fiorina was overblown, and has since shifted to Rubio, as the pro-establishment flavor of the month.
  • The race is essentially settling into a top-tier field of six candidates, which bodes well for Trump.
  • The meltdown in the U.S. House leadership plays well for Trump.