Tuesday, November 4, 2014 – 08:30 a.m.
This is the final update of absentee ballot returns. The data shows voters, Democrats in particular, are disengaged.
Depending on Election Day turnout, Raul Ruiz (D) could be ousted by State Assemblyman Brian Nestande (R) in CD-36. In CD-31, the battle between Pete Aguilar (D) and Paul Chabot (R) is a toss-up. But the numbers currently don’t favor Aguilar.
In CD-41, Congressman Mark Takano (D-Riverside) still stands the best chance for a reelection win, over Steve Adams (R-Riverside).
Independents will play a big roll in deciding Tuesday nights outcome. If Democrats are going to have any chance, the independent vote will have to play a roll here. If they break for GOP candidates, then it will be a significantly bad night for the Democrat Party.
Here’s the final breakdown for selected counties and districts. The data does not include ballots received Tuesday or ballots dropped off at poll locations.
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Permanent Absentee Ballot or Vote-By-Mail (VBM) return (As of 11/03)
Source: Political Data Inc.
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Category Party Total Reg Total VBM Returned VBM % VBM Voted % Voted
.
Statewide All 17,788,122 8,911,445 2,961,385 33.23% 16.65%
.
Party % Vote
Rep 38%
Dem 42%
Oth 20%
.
San
Bernardino
County All 852,146 401,593 113,550 28.27% 13.33%
.
Party % Vote
Rep 44%
Dem 38%
Oth 18%
.
Riverside
County All 891,115 506,194 157,222 31.06% 17.64%
.
Party % Vote
Rep 46%
Dem 37%
Oth 17%.
CD-31 All 308,655 145,537 39,388 27.06% 12.76%
.
Party % Vote
Rep 41%
Dem 43%
Oth 16%
.
CD-36 All 282,146 181,504 74,043 39.15% 25.17%
.
Party % Vote
Rep 43%
Dem 39%
Oth 18%
.
CD-41 All 270,841 142,996 31,800 22.24% 11.74%
.
Party % Vote
Rep 40%
Dem 44%
Oth 16%
.
AD-40 All 209,749 101,187 28,699 28.36% 13.68%
.
Party % Vote
Rep 44%
Dem 39%
Oth 17%
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