Tuesday, November 4, 2014 – 08:30 a.m.

This is the final update of absentee ballot returns. The data shows voters, Democrats in particular, are disengaged.

Depending on Election Day turnout, Raul Ruiz (D) could be ousted by State Assemblyman Brian Nestande (R) in CD-36. In CD-31, the battle between Pete Aguilar (D) and Paul Chabot (R) is a toss-up. But the numbers currently don’t favor Aguilar.

In CD-41, Congressman Mark Takano (D-Riverside) still stands the best chance for a reelection win, over Steve Adams (R-Riverside).

Independents will play a big roll in deciding Tuesday nights outcome. If Democrats are going to have any chance, the independent vote will have to play a roll here. If they break for GOP candidates, then it will be a significantly bad night for the Democrat Party.

Here’s the final breakdown for selected counties and districts. The data does not include ballots received Tuesday or ballots dropped off at poll locations.

………….

Permanent Absentee Ballot or Vote-By-Mail (VBM) return (As of 11/03)
Source: Political Data Inc.
.
Category     Party  Total Reg   Total VBM   Returned VBM  % VBM Voted  % Voted
.
Statewide    All    17,788,122  8,911,445   2,961,385       33.23%      16.65%
.
                    Party  % Vote
                    Rep    38%
                    Dem    42%
                    Oth    20%
.
San
Bernardino
County       All       852,146    401,593     113,550       28.27%      13.33%
.
                    Party  % Vote
                    Rep    44%
                    Dem    38%
                    Oth    18%
.
Riverside
County       All       891,115    506,194     157,222       31.06%      17.64%
.
                    Party  % Vote
                    Rep    46%
                    Dem    37%
                    Oth    17%

.
CD-31        All       308,655    145,537      39,388       27.06%      12.76%
.
                    Party  % Vote
                    Rep    41%
                    Dem    43%
                    Oth    16%
.
CD-36        All       282,146    181,504      74,043       39.15%      25.17%
.
                    Party  % Vote
                    Rep    43%
                    Dem    39%
                    Oth    18%
.
CD-41        All       270,841    142,996      31,800       22.24%      11.74%
.
                    Party  % Vote
                    Rep    40%
                    Dem    44%
                    Oth    16%
.
AD-40        All       209,749    101,187      28,699       28.36%      13.68%
.
                    Party  % Vote
                    Rep    44%
                    Dem    39%
                    Oth    17%