Campaigns

Monday, November 3, 2014 – 08:30 a.m.

Here’s the latest update from the average of polls, produced by RealClearPolitics.com, as of Monday morning.

Eight of ten contested states remain within the polling margin of error.

With just one campaign day remaining, before Election Day, new polling continues to indicate the GOP will assume control of the U.S. Senate in January 2015.

Based upon the latest tracking, if the election were held today, Republicans would control the U.S. Senate by a margin of 52-48. That’s again of seven seats in the upper chanber of Congress.

Should the GOP run the table, in a so-called “wave”, the outcome could be as high as 55-45.

Polling tabulations will pretty much be completed by Sunday afternoon, as the bulk of remaining undecided voters commit to a candidate. The weekend poll releases reflect sampling from Thursday and Friday.

The GOP now has momentum in every contested state. Whether that momentum will translate into victories in all of those states is dependent on party turnout, and the all-to-important independent vote.

The contested states of Arkansas, Colorado, Kentucky and Louisiana will now go to the GOP. Unless something unexpected occurs, Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-Kentucky) will become the new Majority Leader. New polling shows McConnell is pulling away from Alison Lundergan Grimes (D).

New polling in Georgia shows GOP contender Greg Perdue gaining the upper hand over Michelle Nunn, in a three-way race for the now open seat. The contest will go to a January runoff, should no candidate secures fifty percent, which is likely.

North Carolina, once thought to be firmly in the Democrat column, is in a dead heat.

New Hampshire still remains the best seat for Democrats to defend. Senator Jeanne Shaheen, who appeared to be recapturing an edge in late polling, has fallen back into essentially a tie with Scott Brown (R). If this state goes red Tuesday night, then expect a GOP wave.

Also, let’s forget that the open Democrat seats in West Virginia, Montana and South Dakota will go to the GOP.

The expected turnout modal is a major factor affecting polling accuracy. Each poll selects its own mix of what it believes will be the percentage of voter turnout by party affiliation and other demographics. This mix causes the polls, in some cases, to produce vastly over or understated results.

Republican voter intensity is much higher than that of Democrats going into Election day.

————————

Real Clear Politics Election 2014
Battle for Senate
Dem 45 In-Play 8 GOP 47
.
RCP Averages:   GOP +7 Pick-Ups
Top Senate Races              RCP Average
Colorado        Gardner   (R)   +2.5
Iowa            Ernst     (R)   +1.4
North Carolina  Hagan     (D)   +1.1
Kansas          Orman     (I)   +0.7
Georgia         Perdue    (R)   +2.2
Kentucky        McConnell (R)   +7.2
Arkansas        Cotton    (R)   +7.1
New Hampshire   Shaheen   (D)   +0.9
Louisiana       Cassidy   (R)   +4.8
Alaska          Sullivan  (R)   +2.4