Campaigns

Saturday, November 1, 2014 – 09:30 a.m.

Here’s the latest update from the average of polls, produced by RealClearPolitics.com, as of Saturday morning.

We’re down to seven states in-play.

With just two campaign days remaining, before Election Day, new polling is indicating the GOP will assume control of the U.S. Senate in January 2015.

Based upon the latest tracking, if the election were held today, Republicans would control the U.S. Senate by a margin of 52-48. An increase of one in the GOP column since Monday.

Polls will solidfy by Sunday afternoon as the bulk of remaining undecided voters commit to a candidate. The weekend poll releases will reflect sampling from Thursday and Friday.

The GOP continues to have momentum in nearly every contested state, with the exception of New Hampshire.

The contested states of Arkansas, Kentucky and Louisiana will now go to the GOP.

Colorado appears poised to go the GOP as well. Georgia remains essentially a tie. North Carolina, once thought to be firmly in the Democrat column, remains within the margin of error.

New Hampshire still remains the best seat for Democrats to defend. Senator Jeanne Shaheen appears to be recapturing an edge in late polling.

Louisiana will go GOP either next week, or in a December runoff, especially after Senator Mary Landrieu (D) insulted pretty much all southern voters as being racist and sexist.

The expected turnout modal is a major factor affecting polling accuracy. Each poll selects its own mix of what it believes will be the percentage of voter turnout by party affiliation and other demographics. This mix causes the polls, in some cases, to produce vastly over or understated results.

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Real Clear Politics Election 2014
Battle for Senate
Dem 45 In-Play 7 GOP 8
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RCP Averages:   GOP +7 Pick-Ups
Top Senate Races          RCP Average
Colorado        Gardner   (R) +3.8
Iowa            Ernst     (R) +1.1
North Carolina  Hagan     (D) +1.1
Kansas          Orman     (I) +0.7
Georgia         Perdue    (R) +0.3
Kentucky        McConnell (R) +5.5
Arkansas        Cotton    (R) +7.0
New Hampshire   Shaheen   (D) +3.4
Louisiana       Cassidy   (R) +5.2
Alaska          Sullivan  (R) +2.6