Campaigns

Friday, October 31, 2014 – 09:00 a.m.

Here’s the latest update from the average of polls, produced by RealClearPolitics.com, as of Friday morning.

We’re down to eight states in-play.

With just three campaign days remaining before Election Day, new polling continues to lean away from Democrats.

Based upon the latest tracking, if the election were held today, Republicans would control the U.S. Senate by a margin of 52-48. An increase of one in the GOP column since Monday.

Polls will solidfy on Saturday and Sunday as the bulk of remaining undecided voters commit to a candidate. The weekend poll releases will reflect sampling from Thrusday and Friday.

The GOP continues to have momentum in nearly every contested state.

The contested states of Arkansas and Kentucky will now go to the GOP.

Louisiana and Colorado appear poised to go the GOP as well. Georgia remains essentially a tie. New Hampshire and North Carolina, once thought to be firmly in the Democrat column, remain within the margin of error and edging closer to the GOP challengers.

New Hampshire still remains the best seat for Democrats to defend. But recent polls have Scott Brown even or ahead in the state. Brown seems to be pulling most of the undecided vote.

Louisiana will go GOP either next week, or in a December runoff, especially after Senator Mary Landrieu (D) pretty much shot herself in the head on Thursday.

The expected turnout modal is a major factor affecting polling accuracy. Each poll selects its own mix of what it believes will be the percentage of voter turnout by party affiliation and other demographics. This mix causes the polls, in some cases, to produce vastly over or understated results.

Real Clear Politics Election 2014
Battle for Senate
Dem 45 In-Play 10 GOP 45
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RCP Averages:   GOP +7 Pick-Ups
Top Senate Races          RCP Average
Colorado        Gardner   (R) +3.6
Iowa            Ernst     (R) +1.2
North Carolina  Hagan     (D) +1.6
Kansas          Orman     (I) +1.0
Georgia         Perdue    (R) +0.5
Kentucky        McConnell (R) +5.5
Arkansas        Cotton    (R) +7.0
New Hampshire   Shaheen   (D) +2.8
Louisiana       Cassidy   (R) +4.5
Alaska          Sullivan  (R) +2.2