Elections

Friday, October 31, 2014 – 09:35 a.m.

New data indicates turnout in the Inland Empire is dismal this year.

The poor turnout, particularly from Democrats, could have a major impact on area Congressional contests.

The only race driving any form of voter response remains the 36th Congressional Congressional District, where Rep. Raul Ruiz (D) is fending off a challenge from State Assemblyman Brian Nestande.

The Ruiz-Nestande race, along with that of Aguilar-Chabot in the 31st Congressional District, has democrats rightfully nervous. The numbers are proving they have reason to be.

Vice President Joe Biden is visiting the Inland Empire on Saturday, in an effort to prop up the campaign of Pete Aguilar (D-Redlands), who is running in the open 31st Congressional District against Paul Chabot (R-Rancho Cucamonga). Sources tell InlandPolitics the Aguilar camp is feeling pretty sttressed these days, and rightfully so.

Aguilar could easily lose again.

In CD-36, Congressman Raul Ruiz (D), would appear to be in jeopardy, with Republican absentee turnout three percent higher.

Here’s the latest update on mail ballot voting as of Thursday night.

………….

Permanent Absentee Ballot or Vote-By-Mail (VBM) return (As of 10/30)
Source: Political Data Inc.
.
Category     Party  Total Reg   Total VBM   Returned VBM  % VBM Voted  % Voted
.
Statewide    All    17,787,111  8,854,590   2,196,731     24.81%        12.35%
.
                    Party  % Vote
                    Rep    38%
                    Dem    42%
                    Oth    20%
.
San
Bernardino
County       All       852,146    400,557     78,390      19.57%         9.20%
.
                    Party  % Vote
                    Rep    44%
                    Dem    38%
                    Oth    18%
.
Riverside
County       All       891,115    503,704    125,887      24.99%        14.13%
.
                    Party  % Vote
                    Rep    46%
                    Dem    37%
                    Oth    17%
.
CD-31        All       308,655    145,160     26,960      18.57%         8.73%
.
                    Party  % Vote
                    Rep    41%
                    Dem    42%
                    Oth    17%
.
CD-36        All       282,146    180,638     61,624      34.11%        21.84%
.
                    Party  % Vote
                    Rep    43%
                    Dem    40%
                    Oth    17%
.
CD-41        All       270,841    142,040     24,168      17.01%         8.92%
.
                    Party  % Vote
                    Rep    40%
                    Dem    44%
                    Oth    16%
.
AD-40        All       209,749    100,930     19,832      19.65%         9.46%
.
                    Party  % Vote
                    Rep    45%
                    Dem    38%
                    Oth    17%