Campaigns

Wednesday, October 29, 2014 – 09:30 a.m.

The big question this week is will voter turnout affect results in close California contests?

The answer is probably yes.

New data indicates turnout in the Inland Empire will be dismal this year.

The only race driving any form of voter response is in the 36th Congressional Congressional District, where Rep. Raul Ruiz (D) is fending off a challenge from State Assemblyman Brian Nestande.

The Ruiz-Nestande race, along with that of Augilar-Chabot in the 31st Congressional District, has democrats rightfully nervous. The numbers are proving they have reason to be.

It’s no wonder Vice President Joe Biden and Former President Bill Clinton are visiting California this week to push turnout for Ruiz and Pete Aguilar (D-Redlands), who is running in the open 31st Congressional District against Paul Chabot (R-Rancho Cucamonga).

………….

Permanent Absentee Ballot or Vote-By-Mail (VBM) return (As of 10/28)
Source: Political Data Inc.
.
Category     Party  Total Reg   Total VBM   Returned VBM  % VBM Voted  % Voted
.
Statewide    All    17,787,111  8,854,590   1,711,227     19.33%         9.63%
.
                    Party  % Vote
                    Rep    38%
                    Dem    42%
                    Oth    20%
.
San
Bernardino
County       All       852,146    400,557     69,327      17.31%         8.14%
.
                    Party  % Vote
                    Rep    44%
                    Dem    38%
                    Oth    18%
.
Riverside
County       All       891,115    503,704     99,674      19.79%        11.19%
.
                    Party  % Vote
                    Rep    45%
                    Dem    37%
                    Oth    18%
.
CD-31        All       308,655    145,160     23,301      16.05%         7.55%
.
                    Party  % Vote
                    Rep    41%
                    Dem    42%
                    Oth    17%
.
CD-36        All       282,146    180,638     49,858      27.60%        17.67%
.
                    Party  % Vote
                    Rep    43%
                    Dem    40%
                    Oth    17%
.
CD-41        All       270,841    142,040     18,666      13.14%         6.89%
.
                    Party  % Vote
                    Rep    40%
                    Dem    44%
                    Oth    16%
.
AD-40        All       209,749    100,930     17,076      16.92%         8.14%
.
                    Party  % Vote
                    Rep    45%
                    Dem    38%
                    Oth    17%