Campaigns

Wednesday, October 29, 2014 – 08:30 a.m.

Here’s the latest update from the average of polls, produced by RealClearPolitics.com, as of Wednesday morning.

We’re back to ten states in-play.

New polling isn’t giving Democrats much solace, with just five days remaining before Election Day.

Based upon the latest tracking, if the election were held today, Republicans would control the U.S. Senate by a margin of 52-48. An increase of one in the GOP column since Monday.

Polls will solidfy as the weekend approaches and remaining undecided voters commit to a candidate. The GOP continues to have momentum in nearly every contested state.

The states of Colorado, Kentucky, Louisiana, Arkansas and Alaska appear firmly going to the GOP. Georgia is now a tie. New Hampshire and North Carolina, once thought to be firmly in the Democrat column, are now within the margin of error and edging closer to the GOP challengers.

New Hampshire remains the strongest seat for Democrats to defend. Kansas is trending towards Republican Joni Ernst.

The expected turnout modal is a major factor affecting polling accuracy. Each poll selects its own mix of what it believes will be the percentage of voter turnout by party affiliation and other demographics. This mix causes the polls, in some cases, to produce vastly over or understated results.

Real Clear Politics Election 2014
Battle for Senate
Dem 45 In-Play 10 GOP 45
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RCP Averages:   GOP +7 Pick-Ups
Top Senate Races          RCP Average
Colorado        Gardner   (R) +3.3
Iowa            Ernst     (R) +2.1
North Carolina  Hagan     (D) +1.0
Kansas          Orman     (I) +0.6
Georgia         Perdue    (R) +0.5
Kentucky        McConnell (R) +4.0
Arkansas        Cotton    (R) +5.0
New Hampshire   Shaheen   (D) +2.2
Louisiana       Cassidy   (R) +4.5
Alaska          Sullivan  (R) +2.2