Campaigns

Tuesday, October 28, 2014 – 09:30 a.m.

Here’s the latest update from the average of polls, produced by RealClearPolitics.com, as of Tuesday morning.

Nine states now remain in-play.

A flurry of polls hit over the weekend. The volume impacted the numbers across-the-board.

Based upon the latest tracking, if the election were held today, Republicans would control the U.S. Senate by a margin of 52-48. An increase of one in the GOP column since Monday.

Polls will solidfy as the weekend approaches and voters commit to a candidate. But, at this point, the GOP appears to have momentum in nearly every contested state.

The states of Colorado, Kentucky, Louisiana, Arkansas and Alaska appear firmly going to the GOP. Georgia is now a tie. New Hampshire and North Carolina, once thought to be firmly in the Democrat column, are now within the margin of error and edging closer to the GOP challengers.

New Hampshire remains the strongest seat for Democrats to defend.

The expected turnout modal is a major factor affecting polling accuracy.

Real Clear Politics Election 2014
Battle for Senate
Dem 45 In-Play 9 GOP 46
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RCP Averages:   GOP +6 Pick-Ups
Top Senate Races          RCP Average
Colorado        Gardner   (R) +3.2
Iowa            Ernst     (R) +1.7
North Carolina  Hagan     (D) +1.0
Kansas          Orman     (I) +0.6
Georgia         Tie
Kentucky        McConnell (R) +4.4
Arkansas        Cotton    (R) +5.0
New Hampshire   Shaheen   (D) +2.2
Louisiana       Cassidy   (R) +5.8
Alaska          Sullivan  (R) +2.2