Sunday, August 31, 2014 – 11:00 a.m.

Will the GOP commit resources into the campaign of Paul Chabot (R-Rancho Cucamonga)?

The word leaking out from the party is no.

Both republican and democratic national organizations have been determining where they will contest House seats, and word on the street is the contest to replace retiring Gary Miller will not garner any serious republican support, other than the customary endorsements.

It’s no secret both sides perform opposition research on both candidates, in this case Chabot and Mayor Pete Aguilar (D-Redlands).

The information gleened is a major decision point in allocating resources. The GOP assumes, without any resources, the seat is already a likely pickup for democrats, since the their registration advantage is about eight-percent over that of republicans. The only way to make the contest close is for the GOP to spend big.

But even with more money, they could still loose.

While Aguilar is not the best campaigner in the world, he has little baggage. Chabot, on the other hand, superficially comes across as a mom, apple pie and chevrolet, kind of candidate. But he has baggage courtesy of his use of federal grant money awarded to his non-profits.

Chabot needed to be squeaky-clean to have a shot at besting Aguilar. At this point, it looks like the GOP establishment doesn’t believe he is.

The nearby by contest between Rep. Mark Takano (D-Riverside) and Councilman Steve Adams (R-Riverside) has better odds for the GOP, than the Aguilar-Chabot showdown.

At least it may be money better spent.