By Neil Nisperos, Inland Valley Daily Bulletin
Posted: 06/02/14, 8:27 PM PDT | Updated: 1 min ago

While it’s anyone’s guess who will move on past today’s primary election, local political analysts do know one thing for certain – voter turnout will be low this year.

“I think turnout is traditionally fairly low,” said Michael Scarpello, San Bernardino County registrar of voters. “We haven’t seen any indication that’s going to be any different.”

Academic researchers of local politics say there aren’t any exciting top of the ticket races or initiatives to turn people out to the polls today.

“I think this may be a record low turnout for California,” said Douglas Johnson, research fellow at the Rose Institute of State and Local Government at Claremont McKenna College. “The governor’s race looks like a fairly sure thing for Jerry Brown. There’s excitement on the Republican side on which candidate will lose to Brown.

Jack Pitney, political science professor at Claremont McKenna College, agreed.

“Voter turnout is going to be low,” Pitney said. “That’s pretty obvious, with less than a third of registered voters, and less than a quarter of eligible adults. There are no citizen initiatives on the ballot. There is no suspense about the final outcome of the gubernatorial race. Most people agree Brown will cruise to re-election. The question is which Republican will lose to him. People who are interested in Republican politics are following that, but most rank-and-file voters don’t really care that much.”

Experts said Republican voters do tend to turn out more reliably in primaries in the Inland Empire than do Democratic voters.

“I think part of it is younger voters and other new registrants who have not been voting in every election all their lives are tougher to turn out since the Democratic Party is more reliant on younger voters and other relatively new registrants,” Johnson said. “They face a bigger turnout challenge.”

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