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IE Business Daily

By IE Business Daily
Saturday, May 31, 2014

What a difference a week makes, and a million dollars in independent campaign expenditures. Apparently, with the low returns on vote-by-mail ballots and expectations of even lower turnout on election day, no one is certain about what will happen in Tuesday’s California Primary.

Polling data released in the middle of May gave evidence of a close but fluid race between the top five candidates with roughly half of voters remaining undecided. In order of the last poll, Paul Chabot (R), Pete Aguilar (D), Eloise Gomez-Reyes(D), and Joe Baca (D) where all within ten points of each other with Leslie Gooch (R) trailing far behind. All those numbers seem to have changed, or at least the campaign advertising would demonstrate strategies that explain a completely different election environment.

All five candidates have been running aggressive mail campaigns, and for the first time negative mailers have begun hitting everyone. The only leading candidate who has not gone negative has been Joe Baca. Every other candidate has hit someone, Aguilar has attacked Gomez-Reyes and Baca, Gomez-Reyes has attacked everyone (but recently pulled Gooch off of her hit list), Chabot has attacked Gooch and Baca, and Gooch has attacked Chabot and Baca (well it was a side by side comparison piece.)

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