Andrew Edwards, Staff Writer
Posted: 09/28/2012 09:00:38 PM PDT
Updated: 09/28/2012 09:58:31 PM PDT

ONTARIO – Pollster Steven M. Kinney has nearly four decades’ worth of professional experience studying politics and data, but he won’t hazard a public guess on the outcome of this year’s presidential election between President Obama and Republican challenger Mitt Romney.

“We believe this could repeat the closeness of the `04 election. Or maybe even closer,” Kinney said Friday to a gathering of the Lincoln Club of San Bernardino County.

Kinney is a partner at Public Opinion Strategies, a polling firm with offices in Redondo Beach that advises Republican candidates.

Obama has maintained support from key demographics that helped him win the 2008 election – African Americans, Latinos, 18- to 29-year-old voters and white female college graduates, Kinney said.

Seniors and conservatives, however, appear to have more motivation to cast a vote, Kinney said.

“This is an election of anger,” he said. “They don’t have a heavy love of Romney. They have an intense dislike of Obama.”

Several polls, as archived on, give Obama an average 4.1 point lead over Romney.

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