Capitol Alert
The latest on California politics and government
April 25, 2012

With state revenues slowing to a trickle as the end of April draws near, the state’s top fiscal analyst said late Wednesday that California could be “a few billion dollars” shy of Gov. Jerry Brown’s budget projections through June 2013.

The nonpartisan Legislative Analyst’s Office said total personal income tax collections would likely be more than $2 billion below Brown’s expectation of $9.4 billion for the month. Because the state was already running behind, it would mean PIT revenues would be $3 billion shy for the fiscal year compared to Brown’s updated January projections.

Corporate taxes are also likely to trail Brown’s forecast by about $450 million for the fiscal year so far, according to LAO.

Unless sales taxes are robust, that means the state would be about $3.5 billion behind for this fiscal year, and likely a “few billion dollars” through the budget cycle that ends in June 2013, the Analyst’s Office estimates.

Brown pegged the state’s deficit at $9.2 billion through that month, and he suggested last week that the problem might be $1 billion or $2 billion worse than previously stated.

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