History shows financial crisis takes seven years to heal
May 29, 2011 2:00 PM
Tomoya Shimura
Staff Writer

VICTORVILLE • Despite hopeful signs in previous months, the latest employment report sends a clear warning message to San Bernardino County that the job picture is less stable than previously perceived, University of Redlands researchers said.

Some areas in the county, including Hesperia, lost more than 3 percent of their jobs from April 2010 to April 2011, according to a recent study by the University of Redlands School of Business.

Almost all of the Southern California areas with significant declines in employment were in the Inland Empire, according to the research. Peripheral areas in San Bernardino County faced the greatest challenges.

Unemployment rates in most local cities fell by half a percentage point or more during the month of April, according to figures released by the state’s Employment Development Department.

But the unemployment rates don’t tell the whole story.

“If fewer people are trying to find jobs, you still see a decline in the unemployment rate,” said Johannes Moenius, associate professor at the University of Redlands School of Business. “If you include discouraged workers, the unemployment would most likely have increased, instead of decreased.”

Although his latest analysis indicated that the Inland Empire economy seems bleaker than he expected, Moenius said he takes it as a short-term warning sign. If history is a guide, he said, then it takes about seven years after a financial crisis for the wounds to heal.

For more from Moenius, read the full story in Monday’s Press Dispatch. Get complete stories every day with the “exactly as printed” Daily Press E-edition, only $5 per month! Click here to try it free for 7 days. To subscribe to the Daily Press in print or online, call (760) 241-7755, 1-800-553-2006 or click here.

Tomoya Shimura may be reached at (760) 955-5368 or tshimura@VVDailyPress.com.