Thursday, August 12, 2010

In an election for Governor of California today, 08/12/10, Republican Meg Whitman and Democrat Jerry Brown finish effectively even, according to this latest SurveyUSA poll conducted exclusively for KABC-TV Los Angeles, KPIX-TV San Francisco, KGTV-TV San Diego, and KFSN-TV Fresno.

Today, it’s Whitman 44%, Brown 43%, a result within the poll’s theoretical 4.1 percentage point margin of sampling error.

Compared to an identical SurveyUSA poll released 1 month ago, Whitman is down 2, Brown is up 4. Brown has gained ground among women, up 13 points from a month ago. Whitman leads by 15 among men, a 28-point gender gap. Democrats have also moved toward Brown; last month, 64% of Democrats voted for Brown; today, 74% do. 78% of Republicans today vote for Whitman, unchanged; Whitman leads by 16 points today among Independents. Whitman has gained ground in the Central Valley, lost ground in the Inland Empire; Brown has gained ground in greater Los Angeles, where he and Whitman now tie; Brown remains ahead 2:1 in the Bay Area. Question 1 and 2 on this report show the identical data. Question 1 collapses 9 minor party candidates and “undecided” voters into a single “other / undecided” category. Respondents were asked the “who will you vote for” for Governor question once.

In the United States Senate race, Republican Carly Fiorina edges Democratic incumbent Barbara Boxer 47% to 42% today. Compared to an identical SurveyUSA poll 1 month ago, Fiorina is flat; Boxer is down 3 points. Fiorina’s support is essentially unchanged among men and women, young and old, white and Hispanic; Boxer has lost small ground among men, younger voters, and independents. Fiorina has tripled her lead in the Central Valley, from 7 points 1 month ago to 21 points today. Question 3 and 4 on this report show the identical data. Question 3 collapses 6 minor party candidates and “undecided” voters into a single “other / undecided” category. Respondents were asked the “who will you vote for” for US Senate question once.

To read entire poll summary, click here.